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Dominant Paris Saint Germain run riot with a 1-6 hammering of Saint Etienne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris Saint Germain beat Saint Etienne 1-6 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.08 xG and Paris Saint Germain 2.94 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain outscored their 2.94 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.86 / defence 1.30 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.65 / defence 0.84, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 11% | Draw 15% | Paris Saint Germain 75%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 75%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 43%, Paris Saint Germain 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Saint Etienne's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.47 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights