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Stalemate at Saint Etienne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Saint Etienne and Nice finished level at 0-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Final, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.56 xG and Nice 1.15 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Saint Etienne fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Nice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.01 / defence 1.02 against Nice attack 0.84 / defence 1.06, drawn from 34/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 45% | Draw 28% | Nice 26%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 54%, Nice 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Saint Etienne's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Nice's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 0.89 PPG, Nice 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights