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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Final

Kick-off

Tue 26 May 2026

19:45

Venue

Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Saint Etienne Win

45%

Saint Etienne

2.21

28%

Draw

3.53

26%

Nice

3.78

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.0%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.4%

Home win

2 – 1

9.3%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.56

Saint Etienne xG

Total xG

2.70

1.15

Nice xG

45%
28%
26%
Saint EtienneDrawNice

2.21

45%

Home win

3.53

28%

Draw

3.78

26%

Away win

Goals Markets

75%

Over 1.5

1.33

25%

Under 1.5

4.00

51%

Over 2.5

1.96

49%

Under 2.5

2.04

29%

Over 3.5

3.45

71%

Under 3.5

1.41

14%

Over 4.5

7.14

86%

Under 4.5

1.16

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

55%

BTTS Yes

1.81

45%

BTTS No

2.24

Clean Sheet

32%

Saint Etienne

3.15

21%

Nice

4.74

Win to Nil

14%

Saint Etienne

6.95

6%

Nice

17.91

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.7 7.7 4.4 1.7 0.5 0.1
1 10.4 12.0 6.9 2.6 0.8 0.2
2 8.1 9.3 5.3 2.0 0.6 0.1
3 4.2 4.8 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.1
4 1.6 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1
5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.556
λ Away (xG) 1.146
Total xG 2.702
League avg home goals 1.450
League avg away goals 1.328
Saint Etienne attack strength 1.010
Saint Etienne defence strength 1.022
Nice attack strength 0.845
Nice defence strength 1.063
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 34 / 68