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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nice cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Saint Etienne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nice beat Saint Etienne 1-3 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.44 xG and Nice 1.83 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Nice outscored their 1.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.86 / defence 1.22 against Nice attack 1.12 / defence 1.06, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 29% | Draw 26% | Nice 45%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 44%, Nice 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Saint Etienne's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Nice's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.40 PPG, Nice 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights