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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Saint Etienne defy the odds to beat Lyon 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Saint Etienne beat Lyon 2-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.52 xG and Lyon 2.80 xG, a combined 4.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Lyon landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.97 / defence 1.50 against Lyon attack 1.30 / defence 1.04, drawn from 29/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 19% | Draw 17% | Lyon 64%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Saint Etienne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 44%, Lyon 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Saint Etienne's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Lyon's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.35 PPG, Lyon 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights