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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Saint Etienne and Angers share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 23, as Saint Etienne and Angers drew 3-3 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 0.92 xG and Angers 0.99 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Angers outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.74 / defence 1.05 against Angers attack 0.71 / defence 0.82, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 30% | Draw 35% | Angers 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 42%, Angers 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Saint Etienne's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Angers's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.45 PPG, Angers 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Angers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights