Rennes vs Toulouse – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rennes at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rennes vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Roazhon Park plays host to Rennes versus Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 20 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Rennes (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Rennes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Roazhon Park, Rennes have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Rennes are significantly better at Roazhon Park than their overall form suggests.
Toulouse have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Toulouse's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Rennes, 1.60 for Toulouse — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Rennes register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Toulouse in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Rennes 2W, Toulouse 4W, 2D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Rennes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 62% versus Toulouse 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rennes 75% | Toulouse 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.79 xG and Toulouse 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.202 / defence 0.847 | Toulouse attack 1.291 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.392. Toulouse have an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Rennes games / 40 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 44% | Draw 23% | Toulouse 33%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Toulouse 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rennes are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rennes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rennes 70% | Toulouse 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 44% | Draw 23% | Toulouse 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Rennes 1.79 / Toulouse 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.202 / def 0.847 | Toulouse attack 1.291 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Rennes (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Toulouse xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Toulouse kick off?
Rennes vs Toulouse is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Roazhon Park.
Where is Rennes vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Toulouse part of?
Rennes vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 44% chance of winning, Toulouse a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Rennes and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Toulouse?
Record (8 meetings): Rennes 2W | Draws 2 | Toulouse 4W.
What form are Rennes and Toulouse in?
Rennes (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Toulouse (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.20) and Toulouse's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (1.29x) against Rennes's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
44%
2.27
23%
4.39
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Rennes xG
Total xG
3.31
1.52
Toulouse xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
10%
10.39
6%
18.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Rennes and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Rennes and 1.52 for Toulouse, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rennes's recent record stands at 20W 9D 11L from 40 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rennes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Toulouse, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 15L across 40 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Rennes against 1.32 for Toulouse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 12W 4D 3L from 19 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Toulouse's away record stands at 6W 5D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rennes are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.48 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rennes have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Early Season
Toulouse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 20W 9D 11L in their last 40 games (1.72 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 14W 11D 15L in their last 40 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Toulouse away?
Rennes's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.11 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rennes have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Toulouse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Rennes
2
Draws
4
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Toulouse?
From 8 meetings on record, Rennes have won 2, Toulouse have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Rennes 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Rennes, 63% for Toulouse — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Rennes and 68% for Toulouse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Toulouse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Rennes's games and 63% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rennes vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Rennes's matches and 68% of Toulouse's.
Do Rennes and Toulouse tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.