Rennes 1-2 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rennes at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rennes vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Roazhon Park plays host to Rennes versus Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Rennes (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Roazhon Park, Rennes have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Toulouse have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Toulouse's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Rennes, 1.60 for Toulouse — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Rennes 1W, Toulouse 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 58% versus Toulouse 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 58% | Toulouse 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.49 xG and Toulouse 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.202 / defence 0.909 | Toulouse attack 1.009 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.289. Data: 66 Rennes games / 66 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 43% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 29%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Toulouse 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rennes are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rennes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rennes 70% | Toulouse 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 43% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Rennes 1.49 / Toulouse 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.202 / def 0.909 | Toulouse attack 1.009 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Rennes (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Toulouse xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Toulouse kick off?
Rennes vs Toulouse kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Toulouse?
Rennes 1 - 2 Toulouse.
Where is Rennes vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Toulouse part of?
Rennes vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 43% chance of winning, Toulouse a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Rennes and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Toulouse?
Record (3 meetings): Rennes 1W | Draws 1 | Toulouse 1W.
What form are Rennes and Toulouse in?
Rennes (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Toulouse (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.20) and Toulouse's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (1.01x) against Rennes's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
43%
2.32
28%
3.58
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.67
1.18
Toulouse xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
7%
15.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Rennes and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Rennes and 1.18 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rennes's recent record stands at 31W 14D 21L from 66 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Toulouse, meanwhile, have gone 21W 18D 27L across 66 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Rennes against 1.23 for Toulouse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 22W 3D 8L from 33 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Toulouse's away record stands at 12W 6D 15L across 33 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rennes are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.26 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 31W 14D 21L in their last 66 games (1.62 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 21W 18D 27L in their last 66 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Toulouse away?
Rennes's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.09 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rennes have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Toulouse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Rennes
2
Draws
4
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Toulouse?
From 8 meetings on record, Rennes have won 2, Toulouse have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Rennes 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 54%, Toulouse 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Rennes and 61% for Toulouse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Toulouse in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Rennes's recent matches and 48% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rennes vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Rennes's matches and 61% of Toulouse's.
Do Rennes and Toulouse tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Toulouse defy the odds to beat Rennes 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Rennes 1-2 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.49 xG and Toulouse 1.18 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Toulouse outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.20 / defence 0.91 against Toulouse attack 1.01 / defence 0.94, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 43% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 29%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 58%, Toulouse 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Toulouse's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.62 PPG, Toulouse 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.