Strasbourg 3-1 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Strasbourg vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Reims make the trip to Stade de la Meinau to face Strasbourg in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Strasbourg have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Strasbourg have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stade de la Meinau — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Reims (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Reims's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Strasbourg against 1.10 for Reims. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Strasbourg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Reims in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Strasbourg lead 1W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Reims winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Strasbourg half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Reims half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Strasbourg 67% versus Reims 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Strasbourg 54% | Reims 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Strasbourg 1.25 xG and Reims 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Strasbourg attack 0.894 / defence 1.016 | Reims attack 1.008 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.292. Data: 66 Strasbourg games / 66 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Strasbourg 34% | Draw 29% | Reims 37%. Fair-value odds: Strasbourg 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Reims 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Strasbourg 60% | Reims 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Strasbourg vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade de la Meinau • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Strasbourg 34% | Draw 29% | Reims 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Strasbourg 1.25 / Reims 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Strasbourg attack 0.894 / def 1.016 | Reims attack 1.008 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Reims (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Strasbourg xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Reims xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Strasbourg vs Reims kick off?
Strasbourg vs Reims kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stade de la Meinau.
What was the final score in Strasbourg vs Reims?
Strasbourg 3 - 1 Reims.
Where is Strasbourg vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Meinau.
What competition is Strasbourg vs Reims part of?
Strasbourg vs Reims is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Strasbourg vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Strasbourg a 34% chance of winning, Reims a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Strasbourg and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Strasbourg vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Reims?
Record (5 meetings): Strasbourg 1W | Draws 3 | Reims 1W.
What form are Strasbourg and Reims in?
Strasbourg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Reims (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Strasbourg's attack rating (0.89) and Reims's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reims's attack (1.01x) against Strasbourg's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
34%
2.96
29%
3.44
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Strasbourg xG
Total xG
2.58
1.32
Reims xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
9%
11.11
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Strasbourg vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Strasbourg and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Strasbourg and 1.32 for Reims, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Strasbourg vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Strasbourg's recent record stands at 17W 22D 27L from 66 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 23W 22D 21L across 66 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-D-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Strasbourg against 1.38 for Reims. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Strasbourg have managed 10W 10D 13L from 33 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reims's away record stands at 9W 13D 11L across 33 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Strasbourg are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.21 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Strasbourg
Current Season
Reims
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Strasbourg and Reims in coming into this match?
Strasbourg have gone 17W 22D 27L in their last 66 games (1.11 PPG), while Reims have gone 23W 22D 21L in their last 66 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Strasbourg at home or Reims away?
Strasbourg's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Strasbourg at home: 1.21 PPG; Reims away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Strasbourg or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Strasbourg have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Reims in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Strasbourg have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Strasbourg
4
Draws
1
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Reims?
From 8 meetings on record, Strasbourg have won 3, Reims have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Strasbourg and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Reims 0-1 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Strasbourg and Reims?
Strasbourg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Strasbourg 64%, Reims 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Strasbourg) and 48% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Reims in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Strasbourg home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Strasbourg play Reims?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Strasbourg's games and 58% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Strasbourg vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Strasbourg's recent games and 48% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Strasbourg and Reims tend to score early?
Strasbourg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Reims in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Strasbourg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Reims.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Strasbourg beat Reims 3-1 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.25 xG and Reims 1.32 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Strasbourg beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 0.89 / defence 1.02 against Reims attack 1.01 / defence 1.08, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 34% | Draw 29% | Reims 37%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Strasbourg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 54%, Reims 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Strasbourg's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Reims's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Strasbourg 1.11 PPG, Reims 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Strasbourg win broke the near-deadlock. Strasbourg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm. Reims (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.