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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Rennes run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Strasbourg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rennes beat Strasbourg 4-1 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.67 xG and Strasbourg 1.54 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Rennes beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 0.88 / defence 0.97 against Strasbourg attack 1.27 / defence 1.11, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rennes 41% | Draw 23% | Strasbourg 36%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 61%, Strasbourg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rennes's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Strasbourg's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Strasbourg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Rennes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. Strasbourg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights