🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Lorient cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rennes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lorient beat Rennes 0-2 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.92 xG and Lorient 0.89 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rennes fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Lorient outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.19 / defence 0.96 against Lorient attack 0.75 / defence 1.05, drawn from 52/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rennes 62% | Draw 22% | Lorient 17%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Lorient win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 60%, Lorient 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rennes's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Lorient's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Lorient arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lorient (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights