Rennes 1-3 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rennes at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rennes vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Lille travel to Roazhon Park to take on Rennes. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 February 2023, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rennes stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rennes at Roazhon Park this season: 10W 0D 0L from 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Roazhon Park. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Rennes are significantly better at Roazhon Park than their overall form suggests.
Lille — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lille's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rennes at 1.90 PPG versus Lille's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Rennes, 1 for Lille and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rennes in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Lille in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 58% versus Lille 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 59% | Lille 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.47 xG and Lille 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.370 / defence 0.642 | Lille attack 0.891 / defence 0.738. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.304. Rennes carry an above-average attack strength of 1.370 — their λ of 1.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Lille's defence strength of 0.738 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Rennes's defence rating of 0.642 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Rennes games / 59 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 53% | Draw 30% | Lille 17%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 1.89 | Draw 3.33 | Lille 5.88. Rennes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Rennes 50% | Lille 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 53% | Draw 30% | Lille 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Rennes 1.47 / Lille 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.370 / def 0.642 | Lille attack 0.891 / def 0.738 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Rennes (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Lille xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Lille kick off?
Rennes vs Lille kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Lille?
Rennes 1 - 3 Lille.
Where is Rennes vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Lille part of?
Rennes vs Lille is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 53% chance of winning, Lille a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Rennes and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Lille?
Record (3 meetings): Rennes 0W | Draws 2 | Lille 1W.
What form are Rennes and Lille in?
Rennes (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Lille (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rennes's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
53%
1.90
30%
3.32
17%
5.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.22
0.75
Lille xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
5.82
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
4%
25.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.0 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Rennes and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Rennes and 0.75 for Lille, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rennes's recent record stands at 32W 10D 17L from 59 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lille, meanwhile, have gone 24W 18D 17L across 59 games — 1.53 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rennes on 1.80 PPG, Lille on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 24W 0D 5L from 29 games — 2.48 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lille's away record stands at 11W 7D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rennes are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.41 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille in 61%.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Lille in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 32W 10D 17L in their last 59 games (1.80 PPG), while Lille have gone 24W 18D 17L in their last 59 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Lille away?
Rennes's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.48 PPG; Lille away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Rennes or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Lille in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rennes and Lille runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rennes's record when hosting Lille specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Rennes
4
Draws
5
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Lille?
From 10 meetings on record, Rennes have won 1, Lille have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Rennes 1-2 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 38%, Lille 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Rennes) and 52% (Lille). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Rennes's recent matches and 59% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rennes vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Rennes's matches and 52% of Lille's.
Do Rennes and Lille tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lille in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lille cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Rennes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Rennes 1-3 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.47 xG and Lille 0.75 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lille outscored their 0.75 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.37 / defence 0.64 against Lille attack 0.89 / defence 0.74, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 53% | Draw 30% | Lille 17%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Lille win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 59%, Lille 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Lille's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.80 PPG, Lille 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lille (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.