Clermont Foot 0-2 Monaco – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Monaco (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Clermont Foot face Monaco.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Monaco make the trip to Stade Gabriel Montpied to face Clermont Foot in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 February 2023 at 12:00 UTC.

Form

Clermont Foot (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel Montpied: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Monaco have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Monaco have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Monaco are 0.70 PPG clear of Clermont Foot in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Clermont Foot lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Monaco — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 52% versus Monaco 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 49% | Monaco 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.06 xG and Monaco 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.790 / defence 1.032 | Monaco attack 1.245 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.323. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Monaco have an above-average attack strength of 1.245 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Clermont Foot games / 59 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 22% | Draw 27% | Monaco 51%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Monaco 1.96. Monaco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Monaco are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monaco if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 50% | Monaco 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights