Rennes 0-2 Lille – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rennes at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rennes vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Lille travel to Roazhon Park to take on Rennes. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 February 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rennes stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rennes at Roazhon Park this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Roazhon Park.
Lille — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lille's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rennes at 1.20 PPG versus Lille's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Lille, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Rennes.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Lille winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lille have won 3 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Rennes in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Lille in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 58% versus Lille 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 56% | Lille 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.23 xG and Lille 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.030 / defence 0.847 | Lille attack 0.909 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.332. Lille's defence strength of 0.780 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 Rennes games / 55 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 39% | Draw 33% | Lille 28%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Lille 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Rennes 40% | Lille 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 39% | Draw 33% | Lille 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Rennes 1.23 / Lille 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.030 / def 0.847 | Lille attack 0.909 / def 0.780 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Rennes (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Lille xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Lille kick off?
Rennes vs Lille kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Lille?
Rennes 0 - 2 Lille.
Where is Rennes vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Lille part of?
Rennes vs Lille is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 39% chance of winning, Lille a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Rennes and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Lille?
Record (7 meetings): Rennes 0W | Draws 4 | Lille 3W.
What form are Rennes and Lille in?
Rennes (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Lille (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rennes's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
39%
2.59
33%
3.04
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.25
1.02
Lille xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
8%
12.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.7 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Rennes and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Rennes and 1.02 for Lille, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rennes's recent record stands at 19W 12D 24L from 55 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lille, meanwhile, have gone 25W 19D 11L across 55 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lille by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rennes heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 12W 5D 10L from 27 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lille's away record stands at 8W 12D 7L across 27 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Rennes are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.56 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Lille in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Lille in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 19W 12D 24L in their last 55 games (1.25 PPG), while Lille have gone 25W 19D 11L in their last 55 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Lille away?
Rennes's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 1.52 PPG; Lille away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Rennes or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Lille in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rennes and Lille runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rennes's record when hosting Lille specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Rennes
4
Draws
5
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Lille?
From 10 meetings on record, Rennes have won 1, Lille have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Rennes 1-2 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 63%, Lille 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Rennes) and 41% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Lille in 41%; Lille in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Lille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Rennes's games and 52% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rennes vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Rennes's recent games and 41% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rennes and Lille tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lille in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lille cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rennes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Rennes 0-2 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.23 xG and Lille 1.02 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rennes fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Lille outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.03 / defence 0.85 against Lille attack 0.91 / defence 0.78, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 39% | Draw 33% | Lille 28%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Lille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 56%, Lille 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Lille's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward. Lille (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.