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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rennes and Le Havre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 18, as Rennes and Le Havre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.97 xG and Le Havre 0.89 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Rennes fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.26 / defence 0.95 against Le Havre attack 0.75 / defence 1.00, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rennes 63% | Draw 21% | Le Havre 16%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 61%, Le Havre 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rennes's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Le Havre's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rennes 1.39 PPG, Le Havre 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights