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Poisson model favours Rennes (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rennes face Le Havre.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 18 as Rennes welcome Le Havre to Roazhon Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 16:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Rennes have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Rennes have posted 7W 2D 1L at Roazhon Park — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Le Havre's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Rennes are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Rennes: 3 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Le Havre, with 2 draws across those contests.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Rennes and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Rennes in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

Le Havre in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 51% versus Le Havre 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 61% | Le Havre 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.97 xG and Le Havre 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.256 / defence 0.951 | Le Havre attack 0.754 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.234. Rennes carry an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Rennes games / 51 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rennes 63% | Draw 21% | Le Havre 16%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Le Havre 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Rennes (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Rennes at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rennes 70% | Le Havre 40% BTTS from recent games.

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