Rennes 1-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rennes (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rennes face Le Havre.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 18 as Rennes welcome Le Havre to Roazhon Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Rennes have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rennes have posted 7W 2D 1L at Roazhon Park — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Rennes are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Rennes: 3 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Le Havre, with 2 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Rennes and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Rennes in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 51% versus Le Havre 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 61% | Le Havre 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.97 xG and Le Havre 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.256 / defence 0.951 | Le Havre attack 0.754 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.234. Rennes carry an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Rennes games / 51 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 63% | Draw 21% | Le Havre 16%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Le Havre 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Rennes (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rennes at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rennes 70% | Le Havre 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 63% | Draw 21% | Le Havre 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 51% | xG Rennes 1.97 / Le Havre 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.256 / def 0.951 | Le Havre attack 0.754 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Rennes (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Le Havre xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Le Havre kick off?
Rennes vs Le Havre kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Le Havre?
Rennes 1 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Rennes vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Le Havre part of?
Rennes vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 63% chance of winning, Le Havre a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Rennes and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Le Havre?
Record (5 meetings): Rennes 3W | Draws 2 | Le Havre 0W.
What form are Rennes and Le Havre in?
Rennes (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Le Havre (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.26) and Le Havre's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
63%
1.60
21%
4.74
16%
6.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.86
0.89
Le Havre xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
6.18
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
14%
7.17
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
2%
44.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Rennes and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Rennes and 0.89 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Rennes have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 21W 8D 22L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre's form line: 14W 10D 27L from 51 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rennes on 1.39 PPG, Le Havre on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rennes have posted 1.80 PPG from 25 outings (14W 3D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Le Havre have gone 8W 4D 13L from 25 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rennes are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.08 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 21W 8D 22L in their last 51 games (1.39 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 14W 10D 27L in their last 51 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Le Havre away?
Rennes's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 1.80 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Rennes or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Le Havre in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rennes and Le Havre runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2025, when Rennes won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rennes's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Rennes
3
Draws
0
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Rennes have won 3, Le Havre have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Rennes 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Le Havre?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 48%, Le Havre 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Rennes) and 48% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Le Havre in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Rennes's recent matches and 52% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rennes vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Rennes's recent games and 48% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rennes and Le Havre tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rennes and Le Havre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 18, as Rennes and Le Havre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.97 xG and Le Havre 0.89 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Rennes fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.26 / defence 0.95 against Le Havre attack 0.75 / defence 1.00, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 63% | Draw 21% | Le Havre 16%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 61%, Le Havre 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.39 PPG, Le Havre 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.