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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rennes and Auxerre share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 8, as Rennes and Auxerre drew 2-2 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.67 xG and Auxerre 0.78 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 0.94 / defence 0.75 against Auxerre attack 0.83 / defence 1.05, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rennes 59% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 17%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 58%, Auxerre 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rennes's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Auxerre's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rennes 1.24 PPG, Auxerre 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rennes (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights