🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Auxerre defy the odds to beat Rennes 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Auxerre beat Rennes 0-1 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.62 xG and Auxerre 1.26 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rennes fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Auxerre attack 0.91 / defence 1.20, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rennes 46% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 30%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 56%, Auxerre 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rennes's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Auxerre's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights