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Shock result as Reims defy the odds to beat Toulouse 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reims beat Toulouse 1-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.07 xG and Toulouse 1.75 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Toulouse landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.77 / defence 1.05 against Toulouse attack 1.16 / defence 0.93, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reims 23% | Draw 24% | Toulouse 53%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Reims win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 52%, Toulouse 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reims's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Toulouse's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reims 1.21 PPG, Toulouse 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights