Reims 0-0 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reims host Nice at Stade Auguste-Delaune in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reims stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims's home record at Stade Auguste-Delaune: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Nice have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nice have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Reims are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Reims have won 0, Nice 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Nice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Reims in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Nice in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 54% versus Nice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 49% | Nice 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.09 xG and Nice 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.901 / defence 0.945 | Nice attack 0.827 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.334. Data: 65 Reims games / 65 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 35% | Draw 32% | Nice 33%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Nice 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Nice lead the H2H ledger, but Reims carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Reims 50% | Nice 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 35% | Draw 32% | Nice 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Reims 1.09 / Nice 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.901 / def 0.945 | Nice attack 0.827 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Reims (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Nice xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Nice kick off?
Reims vs Nice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Nice?
Reims 0 - 0 Nice.
Where is Reims vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Nice part of?
Reims vs Nice is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 35% chance of winning, Nice a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Reims and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Nice?
Record (5 meetings): Reims 0W | Draws 3 | Nice 2W.
What form are Reims and Nice in?
Reims (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Nice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Reims's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Nice's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
35%
2.84
32%
3.13
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Reims xG
Total xG
2.13
1.04
Nice xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
11%
9.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Reims and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Reims and 1.04 for Nice, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reims come into this having played 65 games, going 23W 21D 21L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nice sit at 1.55 PPG from 65 outings (27W 20D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.38 PPG, Nice on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Reims's home form reads 14W 8D 10L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Nice have taken 1.50 points per game from 32 outings (13W 9D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Reims are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.17 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Nice in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Nice in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 23W 21D 21L in their last 65 games (1.38 PPG), while Nice have gone 27W 20D 18L in their last 65 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Nice away?
Reims's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.56 PPG; Nice away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Reims or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Nice in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Nice go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Reims's record when hosting Nice specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Reims
4
Draws
4
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Nice?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 0, Nice have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when Nice 1-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 50%, Nice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Reims) and 38% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Nice in 31%; Nice in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Reims's recent matches and 50% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reims's recent games and 38% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Nice tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Nice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Reims's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims and Nice finished level at 0-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.09 xG and Nice 1.04 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Reims fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Nice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.90 / defence 0.94 against Nice attack 0.83 / defence 0.92, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 35% | Draw 32% | Nice 33%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 49%, Nice 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nice's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.38 PPG, Nice 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.