Reims 2-0 Lyon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Reims at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Lyon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 7 as Reims welcome Lyon to Stade Auguste-Delaune. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 October 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Reims have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Reims have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lyon — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lyon have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lyon's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Reims at 1.10 PPG versus Lyon's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Reims, 1 for Lyon and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 0–3 with Lyon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Reims trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Lyon trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 52% versus Lyon 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 50% | Lyon 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.32 xG and Lyon 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.982 / defence 0.999 | Lyon attack 0.864 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.218. Data: 44 Reims games / 44 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 42% | Draw 30% | Lyon 29%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Lyon 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Reims 50% | Lyon 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 42% | Draw 30% | Lyon 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Reims 1.32 / Lyon 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.982 / def 0.999 | Lyon attack 0.864 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Reims (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Lyon xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Lyon kick off?
Reims vs Lyon kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Lyon?
Reims 2 - 0 Lyon.
Where is Reims vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Lyon part of?
Reims vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 42% chance of winning, Lyon a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Reims and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Lyon?
Record (4 meetings): Reims 1W | Draws 2 | Lyon 1W.
What form are Reims and Lyon in?
Reims (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Lyon (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Reims's attack at 0.98x the league average against Lyon's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
42%
2.40
30%
3.39
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Reims xG
Total xG
2.37
1.05
Lyon xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
8%
12.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Reims and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Reims and 1.05 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reims's recent record stands at 15W 16D 13L from 44 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lyon, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 16L across 44 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lyon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.39 PPG, Lyon on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Reims have managed 9W 6D 6L from 21 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lyon's away record stands at 8W 3D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Reims are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.55 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon in 66%.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Early Season
Lyon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Lyon in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 15W 16D 13L in their last 44 games (1.39 PPG), while Lyon have gone 18W 10D 16L in their last 44 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Lyon away?
Reims's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.57 PPG; Lyon away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Reims or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Lyon in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2025, when Lyon won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Reims's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Reims
4
Draws
2
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Lyon?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 2, Lyon have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Lyon 4-0 Reims.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 52%, Lyon 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Reims) and 67% (Lyon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Lyon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Reims's games and 67% of Lyon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Reims's matches and 67% of Lyon's.
Do Reims and Lyon tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lyon in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lyon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Lyon 2-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.32 xG and Lyon 1.05 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lyon landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Lyon attack 0.86 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 42% | Draw 30% | Lyon 29%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 50%, Lyon 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lyon's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.39 PPG, Lyon 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.