Le Havre 0-2 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lille make the trip to Stade Océane to face Le Havre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Le Havre have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Le Havre have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stade Océane — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Océane. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Le Havre are significantly better at Stade Océane than their overall form suggests.
Lille's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Lille have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Le Havre against 1.60 for Lille. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Le Havre — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Lille — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 41% versus Lille 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 32% | Lille 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.63 xG and Lille 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 1.023 / defence 1.024 | Lille attack 1.026 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.204. Data: 6 Le Havre games / 44 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 45% | Draw 26% | Lille 29%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Lille 3.45. Le Havre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 40% | Lille 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 45% | Draw 26% | Lille 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Le Havre 1.63 / Lille 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 1.023 / def 1.024 | Lille attack 1.026 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Lille xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Lille kick off?
Le Havre vs Lille kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Lille?
Le Havre 0 - 2 Lille.
Where is Le Havre vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Lille part of?
Le Havre vs Lille is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 45% chance of winning, Lille a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Le Havre and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Lille?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Le Havre and Lille in?
Le Havre (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Lille (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Le Havre's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Lille's attack (1.03x) against Le Havre's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 6/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.82
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.89
1.26
Lille xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
6%
17.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.4 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.26 for Lille, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 22W 18D 4L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lille's form line: 21W 12D 11L from 44 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.91 PPG for Le Havre against 1.70 for Lille. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 2.09 PPG from 22 outings (13W 7D 2L).
On the road, Lille have gone 6W 8D 8L from 22 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lille's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Le Havre are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.59 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.66 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille in 64%.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Early Season
Lille
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Lille in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 22W 18D 4L in their last 44 games (1.91 PPG), while Lille have gone 21W 12D 11L in their last 44 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Lille away?
Le Havre's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 2.09 PPG; Lille away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Lille in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lille won 3-0 on 17 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Le Havre
1
Draws
4
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Lille?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Lille have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Lille 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 36%, Lille 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Le Havre) and 41% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Lille in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Le Havre's recent matches and 59% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Le Havre's recent games and 41% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Lille tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lille in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lille cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Le Havre 0-2 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.63 xG and Lille 1.26 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Le Havre fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against Lille attack 1.03 / defence 1.07, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 45% | Draw 26% | Lille 29%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Lille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 32%, Lille 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lille's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.91 PPG, Lille 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.