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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Reims and Le Havre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 18, as Reims and Le Havre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.56 xG and Le Havre 1.32 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.86 / defence 1.18 against Le Havre attack 0.86 / defence 1.18, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reims 41% | Draw 29% | Le Havre 30%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 57%, Le Havre 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reims's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Le Havre's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Reims arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights