Reims 4-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reims at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Estac Troyes travel to Stade Auguste-Delaune II to take on Reims. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 February 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reims stand at 4W 6D 0L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims at Stade Auguste-Delaune II this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Estac Troyes — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Reims have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Reims register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Estac Troyes in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Reims, 2 for Estac Troyes and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Reims in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Reims 55% and Estac Troyes 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 40% | Estac Troyes 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 2.56 xG and Estac Troyes 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.127 / defence 0.923 | Estac Troyes attack 1.190 / defence 1.587. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.297. Estac Troyes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.587 — this is suppressing Reims's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Reims games / 60 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 61% | Draw 21% | Estac Troyes 19%. Fair-value odds: Reims 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Estac Troyes 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Reims (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.56 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Estac Troyes lead the H2H ledger, but Reims carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Reims as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Reims 60% | Estac Troyes 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 61% | Draw 21% | Estac Troyes 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 71% | xG Reims 2.56 / Estac Troyes 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.127 / def 0.923 | Estac Troyes attack 1.190 / def 1.587 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Reims (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Estac Troyes xG
71%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Reims vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Estac Troyes?
Reims 4 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Reims vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Estac Troyes part of?
Reims vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 61% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Reims and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Estac Troyes?
Record (3 meetings): Reims 0W | Draws 1 | Estac Troyes 2W.
What form are Reims and Estac Troyes in?
Reims (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Estac Troyes (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Reims's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Estac Troyes's defensive record (1.59x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.56. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.7%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.85
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
Reims xG
Total xG
3.98
1.43
Estac Troyes xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.49
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
8%
12.88
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
1%
68.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Reims and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Reims and 1.43 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 3.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Estac Troyes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reims's recent record stands at 17W 25D 18L from 60 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estac Troyes, meanwhile, have gone 13W 18D 29L across 60 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.27 PPG, Estac Troyes on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Reims have managed 9W 10D 10L from 29 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estac Troyes's away record stands at 7W 4D 18L across 29 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reims come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Reims are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.17 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 17W 25D 18L in their last 60 games (1.27 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 13W 18D 29L in their last 60 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Estac Troyes away?
Reims's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.28 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Reims or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reims and Estac Troyes runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2023, when Reims won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Reims's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Reims
2
Draws
3
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, Reims have won 1, Estac Troyes have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Estac Troyes 2-1 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reims see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 55%, Estac Troyes 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Reims) and 66% (Estac Troyes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Reims have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Estac Troyes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Reims's games and 72% of Estac Troyes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Reims's matches and 66% of Estac Troyes's.
Do Reims and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Reims run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Estac Troyes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Estac Troyes 4-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 2.56 xG and Estac Troyes 1.43 xG, a combined 3.98. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Reims beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Estac Troyes landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.13 / defence 0.92 against Estac Troyes attack 1.19 / defence 1.59, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 61% | Draw 21% | Estac Troyes 19%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 40%, Estac Troyes 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.27 PPG, Estac Troyes 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.