Estac Troyes 0-1 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Montpellier fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Aube plays host to Estac Troyes versus Montpellier in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 19 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Estac Troyes (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes at Stade de l'Aube this season: 1W 7D 2L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Montpellier's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Montpellier's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Montpellier are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Estac Troyes, 1 for Montpellier and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 2–3 with Montpellier winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Estac Troyes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Montpellier goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 64% versus Montpellier 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 51% | Montpellier 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.50 xG and Montpellier 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.796 / defence 1.146 | Montpellier attack 0.992 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.251. Estac Troyes's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Montpellier bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Estac Troyes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Estac Troyes games / 61 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 37% | Draw 29% | Montpellier 34%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Montpellier 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Estac Troyes as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Montpellier (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 80% | Montpellier 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 37% | Draw 29% | Montpellier 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Estac Troyes 1.50 / Montpellier 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.796 / def 1.146 | Montpellier attack 0.992 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Montpellier xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Montpellier kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Montpellier kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 February 2023 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Montpellier?
Estac Troyes 0 - 1 Montpellier.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Montpellier part of?
Estac Troyes vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 37% chance of winning, Montpellier a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Estac Troyes and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Montpellier?
Record (3 meetings): Estac Troyes 1W | Draws 1 | Montpellier 1W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Montpellier in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Montpellier (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Montpellier's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Montpellier's attack (0.99x) against Estac Troyes's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
37%
2.69
29%
3.42
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.93
1.42
Montpellier xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
9%
11.16
7%
13.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.42 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Estac Troyes have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 13W 18D 30L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Montpellier's form line: 19W 9D 33L from 61 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Estac Troyes against 1.08 for Montpellier. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Estac Troyes have posted 1.07 PPG from 30 outings (6W 14D 10L).
On the road, Montpellier have gone 8W 3D 19L from 30 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 1.36 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Montpellier
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 13W 18D 30L in their last 61 games (0.93 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 19W 9D 33L in their last 61 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Montpellier away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.07 PPG; Montpellier away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estac Troyes have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Montpellier — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Estac Troyes
2
Draws
2
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Montpellier?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 2, Montpellier have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Montpellier 2-2 Estac Troyes.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 60%, Montpellier 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Estac Troyes) and 50% (Montpellier).
On the defensive side: Montpellier in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Montpellier?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 47% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 50% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Montpellier tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Montpellier defy the odds to beat Estac Troyes 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Montpellier beat Estac Troyes 0-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.50 xG and Montpellier 1.42 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Estac Troyes fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.80 / defence 1.15 against Montpellier attack 0.99 / defence 1.28, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 37% | Draw 29% | Montpellier 34%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Montpellier win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 51%, Montpellier 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Montpellier's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 0.93 PPG, Montpellier 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Montpellier win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Montpellier (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.