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Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Reims.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Auxerre beat Reims 0-2 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.58 xG and Auxerre 1.37 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Reims fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.74 / defence 1.10 against Auxerre attack 0.89 / defence 1.38, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reims 42% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 32%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 55%, Auxerre 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reims's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Auxerre's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights