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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Paris Saint Germain edge out Saint Etienne 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris Saint Germain beat Saint Etienne 2-1 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 3.61 xG and Saint Etienne 0.75 xG, a combined 4.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.40 / defence 0.83 against Saint Etienne attack 0.69 / defence 1.65, drawn from 50/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 88% | Draw 9% | Saint Etienne 4%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 88%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 66%, Saint Etienne 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Saint Etienne's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.54. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights