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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Paris Saint Germain and Reims share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 19, as Paris Saint Germain and Reims drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 2.01 xG and Reims 1.09 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.33 / defence 0.86 against Reims attack 0.98 / defence 1.00, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 56% | Draw 26% | Reims 18%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 67%, Reims 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Reims's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.72 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights