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Prediction vindicated as Paris Saint Germain edge out Paris FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris Saint Germain beat Paris FC 2-1 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 2.35 xG and Paris FC 0.79 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.39 / defence 0.75 against Paris FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.09, drawn from 50/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 72% | Draw 17% | Paris FC 11%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 64%, Paris FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Paris FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.70. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights