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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nice cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Paris Saint Germain.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nice beat Paris Saint Germain 1-3 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 2.07 xG and Nice 1.26 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Nice outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.35 / defence 0.78 against Nice attack 1.15 / defence 1.02, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 56% | Draw 21% | Nice 23%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Nice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 67%, Nice 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Nice's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.66. Form was overturned, with Nice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights