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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Monaco cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Paris Saint Germain.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Monaco beat Paris Saint Germain 1-3 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 2.13 xG and Monaco 0.73 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Monaco outscored their 0.73 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.53 / defence 0.63 against Monaco attack 0.99 / defence 0.94, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 70% | Draw 19% | Monaco 11%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a Monaco win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 66%, Monaco 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Monaco's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.69. Form was overturned, with Monaco winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.68 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights