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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Lyon defy the odds to beat Paris Saint Germain 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lyon beat Paris Saint Germain 1-2 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 1.99 xG and Lyon 0.99 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Lyon outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.48 / defence 0.81 against Lyon attack 0.99 / defence 0.93, drawn from 61/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 59% | Draw 24% | Lyon 17%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Lyon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 67%, Lyon 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Lyon's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.77. Form was overturned, with Lyon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.63 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights