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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Paris Saint Germain and Lorient share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 32, as Paris Saint Germain and Lorient drew 2-2 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 2.27 xG and Lorient 0.79 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lorient outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.42 / defence 0.82 against Lorient attack 0.74 / defence 1.08, drawn from 64/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 70% | Draw 20% | Lorient 10%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 69%, Lorient 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Lorient's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lorient (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights