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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Paris Saint Germain edge out Le Havre 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris Saint Germain beat Le Havre 2-1 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 2.47 xG and Le Havre 1.23 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.40 / defence 0.78 against Le Havre attack 1.09 / defence 1.20, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 65% | Draw 18% | Le Havre 17%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 68%, Le Havre 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Le Havre's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights