Paris Saint Germain 2-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Paris Saint Germain face Le Havre.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Princes plays host to Paris Saint Germain versus Le Havre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 19 April 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Paris Saint Germain have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Paris Saint Germain at Parc des Princes this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Le Havre (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Le Havre away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Paris Saint Germain's favour (2.80 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Paris Saint Germain register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Le Havre in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Paris Saint Germain, 0 for Le Havre and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2024, ended 4–1 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Paris Saint Germain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 69% versus Le Havre 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 68% | Le Havre 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 2.47 xG and Le Havre 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.398 / defence 0.780 | Le Havre attack 1.090 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.446. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.398 — their λ of 2.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Paris Saint Germain's defence rating of 0.780 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Paris Saint Germain games / 63 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 65% | Draw 18% | Le Havre 17%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.54 | Draw 5.56 | Le Havre 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (65%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.47 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Paris Saint Germain 70% | Le Havre 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 65% | Draw 18% | Le Havre 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 65% | xG Paris Saint Germain 2.47 / Le Havre 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.398 / def 0.780 | Le Havre attack 1.090 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.47
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Le Havre xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Paris Saint Germain 2 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 65% chance of winning, Le Havre a 17% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre?
Record (3 meetings): Paris Saint Germain 2W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 0W.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Le Havre (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Paris Saint Germain's attack rating (1.40) and Le Havre's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (1.09x) against Paris Saint Germain's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.5%), 3-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
65%
1.55
18%
5.56
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.47
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
3.70
1.23
Le Havre xG
1.55
65%
Home win
5.56
18%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
8%
11.87
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
1%
68.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.23 for Le Havre, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Paris Saint Germain's recent record stands at 45W 15D 2L from 62 games, a 2.42 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 34L across 62 games — 0.94 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris Saint Germain by 1.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Le Havre heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Paris Saint Germain have managed 21W 7D 2L from 30 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 6W 10D 14L across 30 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.03 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Current Season
Le Havre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 45W 15D 2L in their last 62 games (2.42 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 15W 13D 34L in their last 62 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Le Havre away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.33 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Le Havre in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Paris Saint Germain go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 1-4 on 16 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris Saint Germain have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Paris Saint Germain
1
Draws
0
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, Le Havre have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Le Havre 0-1 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 77% for Paris Saint Germain, 53% for Le Havre — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Paris Saint Germain and 47% for Le Havre. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 63% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Le Havre in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Le Havre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Paris Saint Germain's games and 53% of Le Havre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 47% of Le Havre's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris Saint Germain edge out Le Havre 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Le Havre 2-1 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 2.47 xG and Le Havre 1.23 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.40 / defence 0.78 against Le Havre attack 1.09 / defence 1.20, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 65% | Draw 18% | Le Havre 17%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 68%, Le Havre 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.