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Paris Saint Germain cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Auxerre.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris Saint Germain beat Auxerre 2-0 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 1.99 xG and Auxerre 0.90 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Auxerre landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.08 / defence 0.78 against Auxerre attack 0.95 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 63% | Draw 21% | Auxerre 16%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 67%, Auxerre 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Auxerre's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights