🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Paris Saint Germain edge out Angers 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris Saint Germain beat Angers 1-0 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 2.29 xG and Angers 0.89 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Paris Saint Germain fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Angers landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.50 / defence 0.84 against Angers attack 0.74 / defence 1.02, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 69% | Draw 19% | Angers 13%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 69%, Angers 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Angers's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights