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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Toulouse run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Paris FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Toulouse beat Paris FC 0-3 at Stade Jean Bouin, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.09 xG and Toulouse 1.56 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Paris FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Toulouse outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.39 against Toulouse attack 0.98 / defence 0.79, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris FC 27% | Draw 25% | Toulouse 48%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 49%, Toulouse 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Toulouse's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Toulouse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights