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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Strasbourg edge out Paris FC 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Strasbourg beat Paris FC 2-3 at Stade Jean Bouin, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.50 xG and Strasbourg 1.58 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Strasbourg outscored their 1.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.26 against Strasbourg attack 1.04 / defence 0.89, drawn from 4/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris FC 36% | Draw 24% | Strasbourg 40%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 50%, Strasbourg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Strasbourg's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.97 PPG, Strasbourg 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Strasbourg win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Strasbourg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights