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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Metz 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris FC beat Metz 3-2 at Stade Jean Bouin, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.70 xG and Metz 1.04 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Paris FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Metz outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Metz attack 0.71 / defence 1.26, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Paris FC 53% | Draw 24% | Metz 23%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 47%, Metz 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris FC's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Metz's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.92 PPG, Metz 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Metz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights