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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Paris FC and Marseille share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Jean Bouin, Regular Season - 20, as Paris FC and Marseille drew 2-2 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 0.98 xG and Marseille 2.19 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Paris FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.20 against Marseille attack 1.40 / defence 0.89, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris FC 16% | Draw 19% | Marseille 65%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 51%, Marseille 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Marseille's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.68 PPG, Marseille 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Paris FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights