🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Toulouse defy the odds to beat Nice 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Toulouse beat Nice 0-1 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.69 xG and Toulouse 1.23 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nice fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.12 / defence 0.89 against Toulouse attack 1.05 / defence 0.94, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nice 48% | Draw 24% | Toulouse 28%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 59%, Toulouse 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nice's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Toulouse's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Toulouse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Toulouse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights