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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nice and Strasbourg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nice and Strasbourg finished level at 1-1 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.65 xG and Strasbourg 1.32 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.95 / defence 1.14 against Strasbourg attack 0.98 / defence 1.08, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nice 45% | Draw 24% | Strasbourg 31%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 58%, Strasbourg 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nice's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Strasbourg's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nice 1.54 PPG, Strasbourg 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nice (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights