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Dominant Nice run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Stade Brestois 29.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nice beat Stade Brestois 29 6-0 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.81 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.26 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Nice beat their projection by 4.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stade Brestois 29 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.04 / defence 0.84 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.07 / defence 1.20, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nice 50% | Draw 24% | Stade Brestois 29 26%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 48%, Stade Brestois 29 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nice's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nice 1.67 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Nice (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights