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Dominant Nice run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Saint Etienne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nice beat Saint Etienne 4-1 at Allianz Riviera, Final, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.05 xG and Saint Etienne 1.46 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Nice beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.72 / defence 1.10 against Saint Etienne attack 1.00 / defence 1.01, drawn from 68/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nice 26% | Draw 29% | Saint Etienne 45%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Nice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 50%, Saint Etienne 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nice's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Saint Etienne's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nice 1.00 PPG, Saint Etienne 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Nice (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights