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Dominant Rennes run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Nice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rennes beat Nice 0-4 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.77 xG and Rennes 1.50 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Nice fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Rennes outscored their 1.50 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.02 / defence 1.18 against Rennes attack 1.08 / defence 1.20, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nice 44% | Draw 23% | Rennes 33%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Rennes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 57%, Rennes 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nice's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Rennes's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nice 1.45 PPG, Rennes 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights