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Dominant Paris Saint Germain run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Nice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris Saint Germain beat Nice 0-4 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.16 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.96 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Nice fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Paris Saint Germain outscored their 1.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.90 / defence 1.37 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.22 / defence 0.89, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nice 22% | Draw 22% | Paris Saint Germain 56%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 56%, Paris Saint Germain 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nice's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.47. That form edge translated into the three points. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights