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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nice and Paris FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nice and Paris FC finished level at 1-1 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.99 xG and Paris FC 0.98 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Nice fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.99 / defence 0.84 against Paris FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.16, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nice 61% | Draw 21% | Paris FC 18%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 59%, Paris FC 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nice's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Paris FC's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nice 1.69 PPG, Paris FC 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nice (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights