🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Nice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nice and Metz finished level at 0-0 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.76 xG and Metz 1.45 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nice fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Metz landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.81 / defence 1.23 against Metz attack 0.90 / defence 1.47, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nice 44% | Draw 25% | Metz 31%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 55%, Metz 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nice's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Metz's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nice 1.36 PPG, Metz 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights