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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Marseille run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Nice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Marseille beat Nice 1-5 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.38 xG and Marseille 1.12 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Marseille outscored their 1.12 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.10 / defence 0.86 against Marseille attack 1.09 / defence 0.76, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nice 43% | Draw 27% | Marseille 31%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Marseille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 59%, Marseille 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nice's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Marseille's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nice 1.67 PPG, Marseille 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Marseille win broke the near-deadlock. Nice (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Marseille (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights